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Why it matters
Coastal Andhra Pradesh was hit by Cyclone Arnab less than a week ago, and this system could bring rain and rough seas to the same districts. Rough seas are forecast along the coast until 1 November, and heavy rain warnings run to 4 and 5 November in several southern states. The strength and timing were still changing in the reports, so readers should follow the IMD's updates.
This Andhra Pradesh cyclone risk comes from a new storm system over the Bay of Bengal, which may reach the coast around the evening of 2 November 2026. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said so in a special bulletin on Saturday, 31 October. The system comes less than a week after Cyclone Arnab hit the same coast. Whether it becomes a cyclone is not settled, and the reports differ on its strength.
What the IMD has said about the Andhra Pradesh cyclone risk so far
The IMD’s bulletin said a low-pressure area had formed near the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and was moving west-north-westwards, the Indian Express reported. The same bulletin said it was likely to concentrate into a depression by Saturday evening. The Press Trust of India (PTI) quoted Manorama Mohanty, director of the IMD’s Bhubaneswar centre, who said the system was expected to intensify into a depression within 12 hours.
The reports do not agree on the next step. The Indian Express said the system could strengthen into a cyclonic storm by Sunday and move towards the coast by Monday evening. PTI’s report did not mention a cyclonic storm. It said the system would be a depression before it reached the coast around 2 November. Both reports describe the timing as a forecast.
| When (IST) | What the reports say the IMD expects |
|---|---|
| Saturday, 31 October | Low-pressure area becomes well-marked near the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and is expected to turn into a depression by the evening |
| Sunday, 1 November | Could intensify into a cyclonic storm, according to the Indian Express. PTI reported a depression instead |
| Until Sunday, 1 November | Rough seas, with winds of 30 to 40 km per hour and gusts up to 50 km per hour along coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam |
| Monday evening, 2 November | Expected to reach the Andhra Pradesh coast, according to both reports |
For coastal residents, the date to watch in the reports is Monday evening, 2 November, when the system is expected to reach the Andhra Pradesh coast. The Indian Express headline calls it another cyclone heading for the state, but PTI’s report does not, so the strength of the Andhra Pradesh cyclone risk is the part still open.
A depression is a weather system that is stronger than a low-pressure area but weaker than a cyclonic storm, PTI explained in its report. If the system does reach cyclonic strength, it will be named Murasu, a name India proposed. The Indian Express said the word means “drum” in Tamil.
Which states face rain and rough seas
The Indian Express reported IMD forecasts of heavy rainfall in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal until 5 November, and in Kerala and Mahe until 4 November. Heavy rain is also expected in coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam as the system approaches. Rough sea conditions are forecast along the Andhra Pradesh coast, with winds of 30 to 40 km per hour, until 1 November.
PTI also reported that the IMD has forecast light to moderate rain or thundershowers in a few districts of Odisha, but that the IMD had not yet said what the system would mean for the state. NewsPlainly’s calculation from the dates in the reports: the Tamil Nadu rain warning runs three days past the expected landfall date, and the Kerala warning runs two days past it.
Why this follows Cyclone Arnab so closely
Cyclone Arnab made landfall on the morning of 28 October, and it hit both Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, PTI reported. The Indian Express reported that at least seven people died in Andhra Pradesh after the storm, and that more than 84,000 people were evacuated. NewsPlainly covered the forecast before that landfall in our earlier stories on the Andhra cyclone warning.
The new system is a separate weather event, and the reports do not describe it as a continuation of Arnab. It matters because coastal districts were hit by Cyclone Arnab less than a week earlier, and this could be a second spell of rain and rough sea for the same coast.
How the storm could develop from here
The IMD will update the forecast as the system develops, PTI reported. Whether the system becomes a cyclonic storm is not settled in the reports read. The timings are the IMD’s forecast and can move, so readers following the Andhra Pradesh cyclone risk should follow the IMD bulletins for the latest warnings, especially those who fish or travel along the coast.
Frequently asked questions
Will the new storm get a name?
Only if it reaches cyclonic strength. India has proposed the name Murasu, which means drum in Tamil, the Indian Express reported.
When will the system reach the coast?
The IMD forecast it around the evening of 2 November, PTI reported. Forecast timings can change.
Which states face heavy rain?
The Indian Express reported heavy rain forecasts for Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal until 5 November, and for Kerala and Mahe until 4 November.