Representative image. Vinayaraj, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons
Why it matters
The crude benchmark has risen sharply since July, putting pressure on a key input cost for fuel retailers. ICRA's September report estimated shortfalls on fuel sales, but its figures are an earlier snapshot. They do not establish October losses or a current pump-price change.
The Indian crude basket, the government’s benchmark price for the crude oil India imports, has averaged $120.08 a barrel so far in October 2026, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC), the oil ministry’s data arm. On 22 October it stood at $119.99. Business Standard reported on 25 October that this is the highest monthly average since March 2012, when the basket averaged $123.61.
The October figure covers prices up to 22 October only, so it can still move before the month ends. Even so, this month-to-date benchmark is close to the monthly level Business Standard identified for March 2012, nearly 15 years ago.
How the Indian crude basket climbed in 2026-27
The basket is a derived benchmark, not an invoice price. PPAC calculates it from two international prices: Brent Dated, a “sweet” crude with little sulphur, and the average of Oman and Dubai, “sour” grades with more sulphur. It weights the two in a ratio PPAC sets each month; for October 2026 PPAC lists 65.27:34.73, against 77.81:22.19 for September.
The crude oil price on this measure did not rise in a straight line this year. It averaged $114.48 in April, fell in May, June and July to a low of $82.04, then climbed again: $90.19 in August, $116.09 in September and $120.08 in October so far. PPAC notes that each month’s figure is an average of daily prices, and the current month’s average runs only to the latest date.
| Month (2026) | Indian crude basket ($ a barrel) | Change from previous month |
|---|---|---|
| April | 114.48 | – |
| May | 106.23 | down 8.25 |
| June | 83.22 | down 23.01 |
| July | 82.04 | down 1.18 |
| August | 90.19 | up 8.15 |
| September | 116.09 | up 25.90 |
| October (to 22 Oct) | 120.08 | up 3.99 |
By NewsPlainly’s calculation, taking a simple average of PPAC’s monthly figures (not weighted by the number of trading days), the basket averaged about $101.31 in April to June and about $96.11 in July to September. October’s average so far is $38.04, or about 46%, above July’s.
The jump is larger against last year. ICRA, a credit rating agency, said in September that the basket had averaged around $66 a barrel in 2025-26, Business Standard reported. October’s average so far is about 82% higher than that, by NewsPlainly’s calculation.
What ICRA said about oil company losses
Oil marketing companies (OMCs) retail fuels including petrol, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). In a statement on 23 September, ICRA cited a basket price of $117.4 on 21 September and estimated that the companies were losing about ₹530 crore a day on petrol, diesel and cooking gas while retail prices stayed unchanged, Business Standard reported.
ICRA put the under-recovery, its estimate of the gap between what the fuel costs the companies and the price they sell it at, at about ₹8 a litre on petrol and ₹9 on diesel. It estimated the loss on a domestic LPG cylinder at about ₹300 in September, and cumulative LPG under-recovery at ₹61,940 crore as of 30 June. An under-recovery is an estimate, not a company’s audited loss.
As a hypothetical illustration only, NewsPlainly applied ICRA’s ₹9 a litre diesel estimate to a 50-litre fill: the gap would be about ₹450. This is not an additional charge to the buyer. It illustrates the marketing shortfall implied by that September estimate, rather than an audited loss on an actual transaction.
ICRA’s Prashant Vasisht said high crude prices with unchanged retail prices would pressure the companies’ profits and cash flows and push up their short-term borrowing. ICRA also said refining margins were healthy, with Singapore benchmark margins above $10 a barrel since the West Asia crisis began. NewsPlainly’s report on Bharat Petroleum’s second-quarter results covers the company’s earnings and refining margins.
Why the Indian crude basket matters at home
The basket tracks the price of the crude Indian refineries import, so it feeds into the cost of making petrol, diesel and LPG. When retail prices are held, the gap shows up in the oil companies’ accounts; when they are raised, it reaches households and businesses directly.
ICRA’s September report is an earlier snapshot, not an estimate of October’s under-recovery. Crude prices alone cannot update it. Vasisht also identified product margins, retail price changes and government support for LPG as factors in the companies’ earnings. A higher crude benchmark does not by itself establish a new loss per litre.
The rise has come with tension in West Asia. ICRA linked the September spike to the renewed US-Iran conflict, the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and increased Houthi activity in the Red Sea; NewsPlainly’s report on US warnings to Iran covers those warnings on 23 October.
What to watch in the crude oil price data
PPAC updates the basket regularly, and the full-month October average will settle whether the month closes above or below $120. The figures in this article are as of PPAC’s update of 23 October 2026. These crude benchmark data do not establish current petrol or diesel pump prices.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Indian crude basket price now?
PPAC data put it at $119.99 a barrel on 22 October 2026, with an October average of $120.08 up to that date.
What is the Indian crude basket?
It is a benchmark PPAC calculates from Brent Dated and the average of Oman and Dubai crude prices, weighted in a ratio PPAC sets each month. It is not an invoice price.
What is an under-recovery?
It is an estimate of the gap between what fuel costs the oil companies and what they sell it for. ICRA put it at ₹8 a litre on petrol and ₹9 on diesel on 23 September.