Representative image. NASA/JAXA/SSAI/Hal Pierce, Public domain, Wikimedia Commons
Why it matters
A below-normal month means less rain than usual in the states of the south peninsula during the October to December season. The outlook is probabilistic: it gives the most likely category, not a forecast for each day.
November 2026 rainfall is most likely to be below normal over South Peninsular India and across the country, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its monthly outlook released on 31 October 2026. The south peninsula covers five subdivisions: Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, Rayalaseema, Kerala and Mahe, and south interior Karnataka. For them IMD expects less than 77% of the normal rain for the month.
The outlook is one of IMD’s regular monthly forecasts, and the press release describes it as a probabilistic forecast for November rainfall and temperature.
How much November 2026 rainfall counts as below normal
IMD measures each month against its long-period average (LPA), the normal rainfall for that month worked out from 1971 to 2020. For November the LPA is about 118.7 mm over South Peninsular India and about 29.7 mm over the whole country. A month is below normal when the rain falls under 77% of that average.
NewsPlainly’s calculation, using those two LPA figures, gives the line that separates a below-normal November from a normal one:
| Area | November LPA (1971 to 2020) | Below-normal line (77% of LPA) |
|---|---|---|
| South Peninsular India | 118.7 mm | about 91.4 mm |
| Whole country | 29.7 mm | about 22.9 mm |
In other words, if the south peninsula gets less than about 91 mm of rain this November, that falls in the below-normal range IMD has forecast as most likely. The forecast is probabilistic. It says which category is most likely, not what will happen on a given day. The IMD release itself is the primary source for these figures: IMD’s website carries the press release.
Where the rest of the country may see more rain
The forecast is not dry everywhere. IMD said below-normal rain is likely over most of the country, except for some areas in central, northwest, east and northeast India, where normal to above-normal rain is likely. The map in the release marks the areas that get very little rain in November under normal conditions, and areas where the model gives no clear signal.
Temperatures are expected to run warm. IMD said maximum temperatures are likely to be above normal over most of the country, except for some regions along the Himalayan foothills, where normal to below-normal maximum temperatures are expected. Minimum temperatures are likely to be above normal over most parts of the country, except in many parts of central and eastern India, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are likely.
Why IMD expects a dry November: El Nino and the Indian Ocean
IMD said very strong El Nino conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean now. El Nino is the warming of parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. IMD’s release says that other factors, such as sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, also influence the Indian climate. Its models indicate that very strong El Nino conditions are likely to continue during November and December 2026.
The Indian Ocean Dipole, a difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern Indian Ocean, has moved above its positive threshold of +0.4 degrees Celsius. IMD said a sustained value above that threshold is needed before a positive event is established. Its models expect neutral conditions to continue through the post-monsoon season, until December 2026.
Business Standard reported the same outlook from the press conference. Its figures match the release. The same report said IMD has kept a drier-than-usual outlook for November, and that a depression over the Bay of Bengal could strengthen into a cyclone and reach the Andhra Pradesh coast on Tuesday, 3 November. NewsPlainly’s earlier report on the Andhra coast covers that storm.
Who this affects, and what IMD will publish next
For the south peninsula, a below-normal November means less rain than usual during the October to December season, which the release describes as the season when the region receives a substantial amount of its rainfall. IMD’s outlook does not say what that means for crops or reservoirs, and this article does not estimate it.
IMD said it will issue its seasonal outlook for December to January and its December monthly forecast at the end of November 2026. It also updates its extended-range forecast every Thursday, for seven-day averages over the next four weeks, on its website.
Frequently asked questions
What counts as below-normal rainfall in November?
IMD calls a month below normal when rain falls under 77% of the long-period average. For South Peninsular India the November average is about 118.7 mm, so the line is about 91.4 mm.
What is El Nino?
A warming of parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. IMD says very strong El Nino conditions are prevailing now and are likely to continue during November and December 2026.
When will IMD issue the next outlook?
At the end of November 2026, for December to January and for December rainfall and temperature.