Representative image. Photo: Salil Kumar Mukherjee, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
Why it matters
Coal still generates most of India's electricity, so thin stocks at half the plants leave little room if demand spikes or trains are delayed. Some demand already went unmet in September. Distribution companies that buy expensive short-term power to cover gaps can later pass those costs to consumers through fuel surcharges.
India is facing a fresh coal shortage at its power stations. Half of the country’s 191 coal-fired plants, 96 in all, had less than three days of fuel in stock as of 19 October 2026, according to Central Electricity Authority (CEA) data reported by Reuters. In mid-September the number was 60.
The coal shortage comes as electricity use stays unusually high for October, driven by hotter weather that Reuters linked to El Niño and by a weak monsoon that cut hydropower output.
How fast the coal shortage has spread
A plant is marked “critical” when its coal pile can keep it running for less than three days. Going from 60 such plants to 96 in roughly five weeks is a rise of 60%, and it means one in every two coal stations is now on that list.
Total coal stocks held at power stations have fallen by about 5% since 1 October, Reuters reported on 21 October, citing the CEA figures. That decline has come even though the coal ministry said last week that it had stepped up deliveries.
The coal shortage has been building since late summer. In September, Reuters counted nearly 40% of operating coal plants in the critical category, and the International Energy Agency’s mid-year coal update forecast that India’s coal demand would rise 4.2% this year to about 1.353 billion tonnes.
Why power demand is outrunning coal stocks
Daily peak electricity demand in 2026 has been running 45 to 50 gigawatts (GW) higher than a year earlier, the CEA data shows. With the monsoon weaker than usual, dams produced less power, and the grid leaned harder on thermal plants.
The numbers for September make the shift clear. Coal-fired generation rose 13.3% from a year earlier while hydropower generation fell 20%. The gap between what consumers needed and what the grid could supply widened to 560 million kilowatt-hours (kWh), the largest shortfall since August 2023.
India has added a lot of solar and wind capacity, and Reuters said nearly 55% of power now comes from non-fossil sources. But without enough batteries to store daytime solar power, coal plants still carry the load in the evening and during demand spikes.
What the coal ministry says about supplies
The coal ministry has played down talk of a coal shortage crisis. In a statement on 9 October, it said daily coal supplies to power plants had risen about 36% from their September low. The daily drop in stocks had slowed from 0.243 million tonnes in September to 0.116 million tonnes in October, it said, though it admitted that stocks had not yet started to build up again.
Railways were loading more than 465 rakes (full coal trains) a day in October, against a target of 470, according to the ministry. It also described the “critical stock” label as an early-warning flag rather than a sign that a plant is about to run dry, and said the figures should be read alongside the improvement in supply.
Earlier reports described the coal shortage as a transport problem more than a lack of coal. Heavy rain in mining states such as Odisha, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh disrupted mining and rail movement in August, and analysts quoted at the time said coal availability was adequate but delivery was the bottleneck.
Will the coal shortage lead to power cuts?
So far, the clearest sign that the coal shortage is hurting supply is the September supply gap of 560 million kWh, which means some demand went unmet in parts of the country. Neither the CEA data nor the ministry has spoken of planned load-shedding.
The coal ministry had said it expected peak demand to ease by mid-October. The 19 October figures suggest that has not happened yet, so the CEA’s daily stock reports over the next two weeks are the numbers to watch. Plants located far from coal mines take longer to restock by rail, which is why the ministry has focused on increasing the number of trains.
Power tariffs are set by state regulators and do not move with daily coal stocks, but distribution companies that buy costly short-term power on exchanges to fill gaps can pass on those costs later through fuel surcharges.
The fuel squeeze also comes while global energy prices are high. Brent crude crossed $110 a barrel this month, as NewsPlainly explained in its report on what Brent crude at $110 means for India.
Frequently asked questions
What does critical coal stock mean?
A plant counts as critical when its coal stock is enough for less than three days of generation. The coal ministry calls it an early-warning flag, not a sign the plant will shut.
How many power plants are short of coal?
96 of 191 coal-fired plants as of 19 October 2026, according to Central Electricity Authority data reported by Reuters.
Why is India's power demand so high in October?
Hotter-than-usual weather linked to El Niño and a weak monsoon that reduced hydropower, which pushed more of the load onto coal plants.